Bali Luxury Villa Owner Memo:
January 27, 2020
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| L.B. Bellefontaine,Owner, Pres. Director of PT. Bali Affordable Lifestyles who Manage PT. Bal Luxury Villas |
Dear Villa Owner.
We hope all is well with you and your family.
In this Memo:
2) Several new and improved awards
3) How the Coronavirus may affect Occupancies
1) Occupancy Update.
For those of you who are renting your villas through us we would like to thank you very much again for your trust and your business throughout 2019.
We are very happy to report that although we had a dramatic drop in occupancies during the months preceding the spring Presidential election and Jakarta riots, we have managed to achieve exactly the same occupancies as last year, an average of 76%.
As can be seen by the above chart March, April and May were down significantly from last year.
We assume this was primarily because of the fear surrounding the elections for president which was initially contested by the runner-up.
Several major protests including riots and five deaths in Jakarta did not help the situation when countries such as Australia issued travel warnings.Now that President Jokowi is in for another four years and invited his opponent to join his government it appears that things have cooled down significantly.
November 2019 was down considerably by 14% from last year. After conversing with my fellow hoteliers in Bali before Christmas, they stated this was primarily because of a downturn in Chinese tourists caused by uncertainty in the Chinese economy prior to the signing of the trade deal with Donald Trump. So, you can thank Trump for that!
December Surprising Upturn:
While I was skiing in Switzerland during our annual family holiday, I was very happy to wake up January 1st. and find that the statistics for December were much better-than-expected.
We enjoyed a 31% increase with an average occupancy of 77% in December.
So, we were saved for the year and enjoyed identical occupancy to last year of an average 76%.
For 2020 I would be happy just to maintain a 76 % occupancy rate since recent statistics state that there are 70% more hotel rooms than are needed in Bali at this time
What I’m hearing from my friends who are fellow hotel managers is that occupancies are down 20% to 30%. So, with our occupancy for 2019 of 76%, I’m pretty happy.
If you have a chance, please congratulate Yanthi and our entire staff for a great job.
2020 Outlook - Cloudy:It's
Unfortunately, my confidence in maintaining a 76% average occupancy for this year has been clouded by the severe outbreak of Coronavirus.
We've already purchased facemasks and rightfully so because there was a run on pharmacies the last two days, and most are sold out.
I put together a chart the last few days wher I'm keeping track of the recorded official documented patients with the virus and the daily death toll.
Fortunately, today we've only had two villa reservations cancel by Chinese who were going to stay here during the Chinese New Year.
Normally throughout the year we cater very little to Chinese tourists because they generally come in groups and want Chinese speaking group leaders along with very cheap hotels and cheap meals.
Unfortunately, some of our associates in the business are not so lucky. We've already heard of one travel agent going bankrupt because every single reservation with Chinese canceled for the Chinese New Year.
So, we don't expect to see many downturns in tourist rentals because of Chinese cancellations since we don't have them anyway.
Of course, if this virus gets out of control people may stop traveling to Asia completely and that could hurt immensely as it did during the 2012 SARS virus.
So, let's pray that a dramatic downturn in new cases happens and stops completely.
Incubation period may take up to 10 days:
Incubation period may take up to 10 days:
They have just discovered that the incubation period may take up to 14 days. during which those who have the disease may not show any symptoms of the disease.
They have just discovered that these people can transmit the disease even before they show signs such as coughing and fever.
Therefore, unfortunately, I must report that thermal scanning may not prevent many more cases.
Fortunately, at this point Bali has no recorded cases. The three that we had suspected last week have been cleared as only having common flu viruses.
There's always a chance of course they will come up with a vaccine and this thing will end overnight as it did the SARS virus, a similar virus in 2012.
The following information is what we will be providing to our villa guests as of this day.
Memo to Villa Owner and Guests
Monday, January 27, 2020
Subject: Corona Virus Protection
Dear Bali Luxury Villa guests.
Our president director Mr. Bellefontaine is on top of information almost hourly in regard to the Coronavirus
There have been no reported cases in Bali as of this morning.
There is thermal scanning at the airport, but this is not 100% safe as they have just revealed that coronavirus may be in incubated in the patient up to 14 days before signs such as fever etc. are displayed.
Most traffic from China has been stopped to Indonesia and Bali therefore there is very little chance of any other contaminated virus carriers entering the country.
To be super safe we recommend the following.
1. Do not enjoy a massage as a masseuse may have given a massage to an infected person in the last week or so. This is sad because I personally love my massages and will miss them dearly, especially after tennis.
2. Try to avoid or discontinue completely any buffet lines where previous restaurant guests or staff may have unintentionally contaminated the buffet food.
3. Try to avoid close contact in public places.
4. In theatres, we recommend that you take a surgical mass with you and wear it although be aware that this disease can spread through your eyes as well.
5. The masks you should purchase if you feel that you need them, are the inexpensive surgical masks which have blue color on the outside and a malleable bendable piece of metal around the nose to allow you to form it to your mouth.
6. Try to cook at home as much as possible to avoid the chance of receiving the virus from a 3rd. party. Soak all fruits and vegetables in vinegar and water.
7. Bali Luxury Villas, in general, does not have any mainland Chinese guests at this time so there's very little chance of catching the virus within our villa complexes.
8. If the Virus gets completely out of control the best thing to do would be to buy some frozen food and vegetables and stay in your villa enjoying your swimming pool, Wi-Fi and television.
9. If you do come down with any symptoms at all similar to flu contact our reception immediately and they will arrange for you to go to a local clinic to be treated for the virus and diagnose whether you have the Coronavirus.
10. If you had plans to go to China, Hong Kong, or even Japan in the near future we highly recommend you change your plans and stay longer with us until the virus is under control. Contact our reception and we will provide you a substantial discount for continuing your stay with us, subject to availability.
If you have any questions please feel free to direct them to the reception and they will ask Mr. Bellefontaine, who is on top of the news almost hourly because he too has a family that he wants to make sure it is safe.
The fact that he is sitting in his office at Bali Luxury Villas right this moment dictating this information is a strong indication that he feels comfortable that there is no virus within our complexes at this time.
Pray that the authorities get control of spreading the virus and eventually that it is under control and eliminated as was the similar Sar’s virus in 2012.
Wishing you all a pleasant, comfortable and fearless stay.
Lawrence B. M. Bellefontaine, President. Director
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Several New and Improved Awards.
When I am asked what the secret is to our much higher occupancies than others my answer is because of our testimonials.
As I stress in meeting after meeting with my staff and management “success is not measured by getting there but by staying there”.
“Success is not measured by getting there but by staying there”.
When I’m playing tennis, especially in tournaments, I have learned the hard way that you don’t slack off when you’re ahead, because that’s when your competition heats up.
Booking.com Awards:
We announced last year that booking.com had awarded two of our PT. Bali Luxury Villa complexes with a very high Guest Review Award Rating of 91 %.
which means that we are satisfying 91% of our guests.
The Guest Review Awards program is Booking.com’s annual appreciation program that recognizes partners for their top-notch hospitality according to review scores left by guests after their stay.
Booking.com was one of the top 10 hotel booking sites on the Internet in February of this year.
Both our Jade Villas and Emerald Villas located in Sanur, Bali, managed by us have received a 9.1 rating out of 10.
That is 91% satisfaction rate amongst our guests who stayed with us and booked through booking.com.
For years we were stuck at 88% so this was a nice surprise.
PT. Bali Luxury Villas Receives Top Management Award:
As I mentioned the last memo Booking.com for the first time ever last month decided to not only award each villa and hotel complex with annual awards but for the first time ever awarded the management of the complexes only.
I had a warm feeling when booking.com just a few months ago presented us with a 9.1 rating for Bali Luxury Villas.
The booking.com the representative added a note that as far as he is aware this is the highest rating given to any management company in Sanur.
“Highest rating given to any management company in Sanur and perhaps even in Bali”
So, when somebody asks how your villa is doing you can tell them that you own a villa which is ranked one of the highest in Bali and in the top 2% in the world.
It is managed by a company that is ranked at the very top in Bali by one of the largest online booking services, booking.com.
If that doesn't impress them, you can tell them that we have for the last 10 years received the Hall of Fame award from Tripadvisor which is the highest award they offer and is awarded to only 2% of the hotels and villas in the world.
Often, I tell my staff at meetings when you satisfy 91% of the guests you are virtually satisfying 100% of the guests that can be satisfied.
After being in business for 40 years I have discovered that 10% of the clients can't be satisfied no matter what you do. They are just grumpy, unhappy people who may be going through health issues, divorce, deaths etc. They take out their unhappiness on everybody around them.
"When you satisfy 91% of the guests you are virtually satisfying 100% of the guests that can be satisfied"
If you own or operate a business, I'm sure you know what I'm talking about.
Currently, with an average satisfaction rate amongst the four largest online hotel booking sites including booking.com, Tripadvisor, Wotif, and Agoda, we have an average rating of 9.1%. Or 91% satisfaction rate. We are virtually satisfying everyone that can be satisfied.
The way you stay at that highest satisfaction rate for so long is simple. Make sure that your clients are receiving villas, accommodations and services that are "far beyond their expectations".
If you don't you will not survive in this highly competitive accommodation and restaurant field.
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PT Bali Affordable Lifestyles International 15 YR OLD Approximately half the 100-plus staff at 14-year anniversary 2018 PT Bali Affordable Lifestyles International |
Bali Still Popular in 2019.
As I also mentioned last year Bali was just ranked by TripAdvisor as the fifth most sought-after destination in the world and the number 1 Destination in Asia.
Therefore, subject to volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, viruses etc. I expect 2020 to be a great year.
Indonesia “Best Country to visit in the World.
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| Condé Nast Traveler’s "Indonesia Best Country in The World" |
I agree with Condé Nast Traveler Magazine that "Indonesia is the best country to visit" it based on my experience and not emotion.
In fact, last year my family and I drove all the way from Bali almost 2,000 km round trip to the Western tip of the largest island, Java therefore experiencing a large percentage of the most visited areas of Indonesia.
We also just returned from a skiing vacation recently which included three weeks in Switzerland and France.
As far as I'm concerned Indonesia has it all, beauty, exotic locations, great year-round weather, and friendly locals.
On top of that, it is one of the least expensive places to travel in the world.
"One of the least expensive places to travel in the world"
This is very important to the modern traveler, especially if you have a family of four, as I do.
For example, it only cost us $600 per person to travel roundtrip from here to Europe and back with my family, including two older boys.
I have been checking prices across Canada right now just to go across Canada is the same price.
When I walked into a grocery store in Zürich in Lausanne on my first day, I was shocked when he walked away with our normal two basketfuls of food for one week for my family and the bill was almost $800.
The same groceries in Bali, Indonesia cost $200 to $300.
Perhaps one of the largest shocks I had was when we went to a movie theatre to see the latest Star Wars Saga. We were billed $60.
In Bali and most of Indonesia that same movie for four people would only cost $15-$20.
And as I always tell people who complain about the few minor inconveniences Bali has "go have a $5.00 massage".
Instead of paying $50 - $150 per hr. in most Western countries you could have first-class masseuse come to your Bali home, villa or hotel room for as little as five dollars an hour.
Couple that with that the fact that a family of four can stay in a three-bedroom, three-bathroom luxury 350m2 villa in a major resort area of Bali for as little as $120 per night or $30 per person.
In Zürich I paid $400 for two small 30 m² rooms in a four-star hotel.
Those same rooms probably would cost you $100 or 75% less in Bali and even less in other tourist areas of Indonesia.
Footnote: The Condé Nast 2019 Readers’ Choice Awards has voted Indonesia as the best country in the world to visit – up from 15th place last year!
Condé Nast is headquartered in New York and London and they are arguably one of the most influential media companies for the tourism industry on the planet.
This year, Condé Nast Traveler claim some 600,000 registered voters took part in the survey online. And because so many people engage, results are often seen to forecast travel trends.
World's Economy Possibly Improving:
One of the factors that has perhaps kept Bali’s tourism rate at similar rates to last year is the fact that many economists were fearing a Worldwide recession.
No doubt we will have a recession, but I don't believe it will happen in the next 12 months.
Donald Trump and his administration will spend whatever they have to make the economy look as good as possible during his re-election campaign’s
He's already spent over $2 trillion more than he said he would since he came into office to give the illusion that the economy is doing better than it is.
With most Western countries enjoying the lowest unemployment rate since 2007 travelers should feel more comfortable purchasing airfares and hotels around the world for the next 12 to 24 months.
Trade talks with China appear to have turned positive in just the last few weeks with the signing of the first stage of the Chinese trade deal. Again, because Donald Trump does not want to go into an election year without having trade talks completed.
Also, Donald Trump will probably be facing impeachment There very little chance of him being impeached because he controls the Senate and the grand jury of the United States.
Rupiah Up 11 %.
One pleasant surprise I noticed when I returned from vacation is that the Indonesian Rupiah has been improving dramatically the last couple of weeks.
Looking at a historic chart it has improved 11% since May of last year in seven months.
This is a strong verification that Indonesians decision to re-elect Pres. Jokowi was a good decision as his policies, put in place since the election has definitely been a factor in making the Nation and the Rupiah stronger.
The main reason for the Rupiah being down so badly for the first part of last year was because of election fears, which happens every four years.
After the election was finalized and the opponents shook hands, things cooled down and Indonesia is back to being not only a rising Tiger but a roaring lion who just got out of its cage.
Good and Bad Consequences for Bali.
The good news for the Balinese, of course, is that in essence, it is like they received an 11% pay raise because many products are imported from foreign countries which are influenced by the US dollar.
Hi-Tech Items such as iPhones and things of that nature have become a lot less expensive.
For American tourists, Bali has become 11% more expensive.
Since Americans only represent A small percentage of our tourist arrivals, I don't think it will affect tourism.
In fact, when I arrived two weeks ago from Europe the plane was 100% full.
I can assure you that tourism is strong.
I'll make a prediction right now the tourist arrivals in the first 4 to 5 months of this year will probably increase 10% over last year because we had many cancellations last year during the election riot fears. That is if this Virus is under control.
Hotel Owners and Managers benefit and lose from higher Rupiah:
It's a good thing that the government forced us to take in Rupiah instead of U.S. dollars because the Rupiah that we took the last seven months for you has increased by 11%.
So, if you are able to hold onto Rupiah in your account it's a bonus.
In general, it's better for the country to have an increase in Rupiah value which means it will cost less for foreign goods that are priced in U.S. dollars.
Keep up the good work President Jokowi and your administration.
2019 Inflation at 20 Year Low.
Now the December 2019 data have come in, we can conclude that Indonesia’s full-year 2019 inflation was recorded at 2.72 percent year-on-year (y/y), a 20-year low! It is the fifth straight year of low inflation for Indonesia (by Indonesian standards),
So, the cost of your staff including housekeepers, gardeners and pool men will only increase 2.72% for the year and we will to be raising your common area charges by 2.72%.
Thanks for reviewing this lengthly summary 2019 and our outlook for 2020
Thanks for reviewing this lengthly summary 2019 and our outlook for 2020
Azizah and I plus all of us at PT Bali affordable lifestyles International, PT Bali Luxury Villas wish you and you’re yours a very happy New Year.
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