By James GallagherHealth and science correspondent
13 February 2020
There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.
Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.
Meanwhile, officials in the epicentre of the epidemic, Hubei province, China, have started counting people with symptoms rather than using the tests for final confirmation.
As a result, nearly 15,000 new cases were reported on a single day - a quarter of all cases in this epidemic.
What are these tests and is there a problem with them?
They work by looking for the genetic code of the virus.
A sample is taken from the patient. Then, in the laboratory, the virus's genetic code (if it's there) is extracted and repeatedly copied, making tiny quantities vast and detectable.
These "RT-PCR" tests, widely used in medicine to diagnose viruses such as HIV and influenza, are normally highly reliable.
"They are very robust tests generally, with a low false-positive and a low false-negative rate," Dr Nathalie MacDermott, of King's College London, says.
But are things going wrong?
A study in the journal Radiology showed five out of 167 patients tested negative for the disease despite lung scans showing they were ill. They then tested positive for the virus at a later date.
And there are numerous anecdotal accounts.
These include that of Dr Li Wenliang, who first raised concerns about the disease and has been hailed as a hero in China after dying from it.
Image copyrightWEIBOImage captionDr Li posted a picture of himself on social media from his hospital bed, on 31 Jan. The next day, he said, he had been diagnosed for coronavirusHe said his test results had come back negative on multiple occasions before he had finally been diagnosed.
Chinese journalists have uncovered other cases of people testing negative six times before a seventh test confirmed they had the disease.
And similar issues have been raised in other affected countries, including Singapore and Thailand.
In the US, meanwhile, Dr Nancy Messonnier, of the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says some of its tests are producing "inconclusive" results.
What might be going on?
One possible explanation is the tests are accurate and the patients do not have coronavirus at the time of testing
It is also cough, cold and flu season in China and patients may confuse these illnesses for coronavirus.
"The early signs of coronavirus are very similar to other respiratory viruses," Dr MacDermott says.
"Maybe they weren't infected when first tested.
"Then, over the course of time, they became infected and later tested positive for the coronavirus. That's a possibility."
Another option is the patients do have the coronavirus but it is at such an early stage, there is not enough to detect.
Even though RT-PCR tests massively expand the amount of genetic material, they need something to work from.
"But that doesn't make sense after six tests," Dr MacDermott says.
"With Ebola, we always waited 72 hours after a negative result to give the virus time."
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESAlternatively, there could be a problem with the way the tests are being conducted.
There are throat swabs and then there are throat swabs.
"Is it a dangle or a good rub?" asks Dr MacDermott.
And if the samples are not correctly stored and handled, the test may not work.
There has also been some discussion about whether doctors testing the back of the throat are looking in the wrong place.
This is a deep lung infection rather one in the nose and throat.
However, if a patient is coughing, then some virus should be being brought up to detect.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionCoronaviruses are named for the tiny "crowns" that protrude from their surfaceA final option is the RT-PCR test for the new coronavirus is based on flawed science.
In order to develop the test, researchers must first pick a section of the virus's genetic code.
This is known as the primer. It binds with the matching code in the virus and helps bulk it up. Scientists try to pick a region of the virus's code they do not think will mutate.
But if there is a poor match between the primer and the virus in the patient, then an infected patient could get a negative result.
At this stage, it is impossible to tell exactly what is going on so lessons for other countries are unclear.
"It is not going to change that much," Dr MacDermott says.
"But it flags up that you have to test people again if they continue to have symptoms."Bali + World News & Views Editor's Comments:
Combined Blogs With Over 1,700,000 Pageviews
Editor Lawrence -Bali Sunset
Update. Novel Coronavirus---2020-02-14:
Based on the Last official update: 13th. February 2020, 8:02 p.m. ET
There are currently 64,438 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,383 fatalities.
As I have been saying for some time "The reality is that there are probably many more cases and substantially more deaths that have not been reported as of this date."
The Bad News:
Yesterday after China reported a 35% increase in the number of new cases from 44,793 to 60,616 cases I reminded my readers that "As I said during every other update "the real numbers are probably substantially higher".
"The reality is that there are probably many more cases and substantially more deaths that have not been reported as of this date."
As the Chinese go into buildings that were previously welded shut they will discover many more cases and many more deaths.
But what I am concerned about is, "is the coronavirus spreading or is it slowing down?"
13 February 2020 Coronavirus: Sharp increase in deaths and cases in Hubei
Some 242 deaths from the new coronavirus were recorded in the Chinese province of Hubei on Wednesday, the deadliest day of the outbreak.
There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with Covid-19.
The reason for the 35 % increase in reported cases was that Hubei "started using a broader definition to diagnose people, which accounts for most of the rise in cases."
China sacked two top officials in Hubei province hours after the new figures were revealed.
Until Wednesday's increases, the number of people with the virus in Hubei, where the outbreak emerged, was stabilising.
Yesterday after China reported a 35% increase in the number of new cases from 44,793 to 60,616 cases I reminded my readers that "As I said during every other update "the real numbers are probably substantially higher".
"The reality is that there are probably many more cases and substantially more deaths that have not been reported as of this date."
As the Chinese go into buildings that were previously welded shut they will discover many more cases and many more deaths.
But what I am concerned about is, "is the coronavirus spreading or is it slowing down?"
13 February 2020 Coronavirus: Sharp increase in deaths and cases in Hubei
Some 242 deaths from the new coronavirus were recorded in the Chinese province of Hubei on Wednesday, the deadliest day of the outbreak.
There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with Covid-19.
The reason for the 35 % increase in reported cases was that Hubei "started using a broader definition to diagnose people, which accounts for most of the rise in cases."
China sacked two top officials in Hubei province hours after the new figures were revealed.
Until Wednesday's increases, the number of people with the virus in Hubei, where the outbreak emerged, was stabilising.
The Good News:
Yesterday I stated "Up until today's rather dramatic news we were seeing the coronavirus slow down substantially.
JAKARTA (THE JAKARTA POST/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Authorities in Anhui province, China, have reported that a Chinese national who visited Bali late last month has tested positive for the coronavirus disease Covid-19, as Indonesian authorities scramble to verify the information on Wednesday (Feb 12).
The patient stayed on the island for about a week before flying on Garuda Indonesia flight GA858 from Bali to Shanghai on Jan 28.
The patient was found to have been infected with the coronavirus on Feb 5 by Huainan CDC according to the Weibo post.
Yesterday I stated "Up until today's rather dramatic news we were seeing the coronavirus slow down substantially.
In fact, overnight there were several news reports, which I did not have a chance to read yet, stating that the coronavirus had peaked.
The world World Health Organization W.H.O.was quick to make a statement that coronavirus cases may not have peaked so there's lots of conflicting news, as there always is during a virus breakout.
I still believe that the coronavirus may have peaked or will peak this month as I predicted a month ago.
I still believe that the coronavirus may have peaked or will peak this month as I predicted a month ago.
"I still believe that the coronavirus may have peaked or will peak this month as I predicted a month ago."
We may be just receiving the real numbers now and if we had the real numbers before we would still see a declining percentage of new virus cases every day.
As you can clearly see from today's chart the percentage of new cases after rising 35% yesterday has dropped back to what it has been averaging recently around 6%.
This is why there have been several articles printed stating that this disease may have peaked.
When I read information say about Cities such as Shanghai and Hainan going into lockdown and farmers dumping all their produce because they can't get it to market along with a lot of other bad news frankly I am on the fence as to whether this virus is under control or not yet.
Stay tuned to my future daily blogs to get facts reported to you by someone who has a vested interest in knowing what's going on.
First, because I have a family with a loving wife and two young boys.
Secondly, I have a hotel business PT Bali Luxury Villas which fortunately to this point has only lost 3% occupancy from last year.
If this virus gets out of control and especially starts to infect Bali things will change dramatically overnight.
It's my job to make sure that my staff my owners and my guests are on top of the news and what is going on.
This is why there have been several articles printed stating that this disease may have peaked.
When I read information say about Cities such as Shanghai and Hainan going into lockdown and farmers dumping all their produce because they can't get it to market along with a lot of other bad news frankly I am on the fence as to whether this virus is under control or not yet.
Stay tuned to my future daily blogs to get facts reported to you by someone who has a vested interest in knowing what's going on.
First, because I have a family with a loving wife and two young boys.
Secondly, I have a hotel business PT Bali Luxury Villas which fortunately to this point has only lost 3% occupancy from last year.
If this virus gets out of control and especially starts to infect Bali things will change dramatically overnight.
It's my job to make sure that my staff my owners and my guests are on top of the news and what is going on.
So, I personally along with my family our hotel staff and our guests are still confident that this virus is of little risk, especially in Bali where to this date there have been no reported cases of coronavirus.
Last night there was a reported case of a Chinese tourist that came here and left last month. After he arrived in China after eight days he did show signs of the coronavirus.
That does not mean he caught it here although there is a slight chance that may be reality.
Coronavirus patient visited Bali last month: Chinese authorities
Passengers wear face masks at Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali on Feb 9, 2020.PHOTO: NYTIMESPUBLISHED10 HOURS AGO
That does not mean he caught it here although there is a slight chance that may be reality.
Coronavirus patient visited Bali last month: Chinese authorities
Passengers wear face masks at Ngurah Rai International Airport in Bali on Feb 9, 2020.PHOTO: NYTIMESPUBLISHED10 HOURS AGOJAKARTA (THE JAKARTA POST/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Authorities in Anhui province, China, have reported that a Chinese national who visited Bali late last month has tested positive for the coronavirus disease Covid-19, as Indonesian authorities scramble to verify the information on Wednesday (Feb 12).
The patient stayed on the island for about a week before flying on Garuda Indonesia flight GA858 from Bali to Shanghai on Jan 28.
The patient was found to have been infected with the coronavirus on Feb 5 by Huainan CDC according to the Weibo post.
Editor's comment: So if I'm reading this right the press is speculating that someone received the virus in Bali even though they were not diagnosed with the virus when they arrived in China. I assume when he arrived in China he was inspected by the now already experienced airport inspection teams.
Then eight days later he was found to have the virus after spending 8 Days Back in China.
Excuse me but I think the press speculating on this person receiving the virus in Bali are not completing journalistic integrity.
I agree with," the Health Ministry's disease control and environmental health director-general, Mr Anung Sugihantono, said his office had not yet received the information and was still "confirming it" but he was quick to say that it was "a rumour""
Coronavirus may not like high heat:
Remembering back to the SARS virus 18 years ago one thing I remember is that SARS did not do very well in extreme heat. Therefore I believe there was little or no cases of SARS in Bali at the time.
Donald Trump was alluding to this fact the other day after talking to the president of China.
He said that he was told by the president of China that this virus does not survive in high heat and of course Bali is in the midst of their summer with temperatures 33 to 35°C.
“Coronaviruses have seasonality," says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist with the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. “We do know that certain environmental conditions favor the transmission of viruses and that cold weather, the humidity, all of that, affect trajectory. There's a good reason to believe [this virus] will have that seasonality."
“Coronaviruses have seasonality," says Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist with the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. “We do know that certain environmental conditions favor the transmission of viruses and that cold weather, the humidity, all of that, affect trajectory. There's a good reason to believe [this virus] will have that seasonality."
Summary:
So the bottom line is don't let today's substantial rise in cases and deaths scare you.
So the bottom line is don't let today's substantial rise in cases and deaths scare you.
"Don't let today's substantial rise in cases and deaths scare you"
The Chinese may be just showing the real numbers and in fact they could even go higher in the coming weeks as the Chinese discover more and more cases and deaths in the high-rises that they had quarantined before.
I sincerely believe so much that this virus has actually peaked or is close to peaking that I told my two sons this morning that "if the news continues to be good through the weekend that they will not have to wear masks to school on Monday at the international school that they attend.
Indonesia & Bali are still free from the deadly virus according to the Indonesian Authorities.
New Cases May End in March or April:
Now, are you ready for some really good news?
If the number of new cases reported only stays at the same percentage increase per day as it is right now the number of new cases reported in early March or April will be down to two or three.
That's right that's not a typo, two or three new cases. This means the spread of the virus could be over by March.
Countries around the world are taking drastic actions to prevent this disease from spreading such as quarantining everybody returning from China and stopping all flights to China.
There's a good chance that it may even slow down faster than I'm predicting and we could be seeing no new cases reported as early as mid-February.
Unfortunately, this still means that by the time it is over there will be 70,000 to 100,000 cases diagnosed worldwide and 1% to 3% of them will sadly pass.
Primarily again those will be those with weakened immune systems which are primarily older people who already have diseases.
"At this point, there's reason to have hope."
Of course, there are a lot of variables involved in this deadly disease.
Many things can change overnight as they did last night.
At this point, there's reason to have hope.
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| Contact Rental Manager Yanthi Direct at 62-361-284069 Whatsapp +62 815-5890-0389 Or Email yanthiptbali@gmail.com |
All our villas offer a private pool, fully equipped kitchen and come staffed with housekeeper, gardener, pool attendant and 24-hour security.
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Our 15-year-old “Hall of Fame” the award-winning management company that manages villas for V.I.P.s such as the former director of General Electric and Ritz Carlton can provide substantial net monthly income to supplement your pension while providing a carefree rental unit.
Confused? We understand that you may have concerns that we may not have even thought of, so feel free to ask whatever questions you wish.
We do not want you to even think about purchasing our © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas unless you are 100% convinced that they are safe, and perfect for you and your family.
Limited Offer: Save $10,000:
As with any new project we are anxious to sell the first few villas.
We have one already on hold and are only willing to offer one other villa at a $10,000 discount. First come first serve.
Free Stay in Luxury Estate:
If you wish to fly over and see the location first after you place a USD 2,000 Deposit we will offer you free accommodations in a 4 bdrm. 5 bath luxury beach view estate with a private 14 m pool for three days within walking distance of the location.
When you decide to conclude the purchase, we will extend the free estate accommodation for an additional four days.
Should you decide not to continue with the purchase we will refund your $2,000 Deposit minus $200.00 for the three-day stay.
Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to review this information and information on the website. If there is any further information we can provide you please do not hesitate to ask.
Cheers, THE SALES TEAM © Bali Luxury Retirement Villas
PLEASE CALL OR EMAIL US: Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com
P.S. We also have several larger villas available from two-bedroom www.baliluxuryvillasales.com
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starting as low as $158,888. The leases on these units vary from 34 years to nine years remaining.
Please contact us if you wish for further information. Tel: 62-361-284069 Mobile or Whatsapp 62-812-3814014 Email: infoBLRV@gmail.com
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For a free one-hour legal consultation you may contact my Partner & Wife Azizah regarding anything from Indonesian Laws, Establishment of legal companies, securing proper visas, Marital contracts including prenuptial's post nuptial’s, etc.
Tel or Whatsapp +628113864993
Email: balinotarisazizah@gmail.com
About the Speaker Lawrence. Is the Owner, President and General Manager of 14-year-old Pt. Bali Affordable Lifestyles International (PT. B.A.L.I.). Doing Business as Best Asia Real Estate.
His spouse and partner Azizah, is a fully licensed Indonesian Notaris with a master’s degree in Indonesian Law specializing in real estate, corporate and Foreign Marital documentation.
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They are a Ten-time Consecutive Certificate of Excellence recipient on the World's Largest Travel Site. This places them among the top 10 % of hotels and villas listed by Tripadvisor worldwide.
Lawrence is also one of Asia’s best-known travel and real estate investment experts. They publish the daily Bali & World News & Views Blog which combined with Bali News and Views Blog has had almost 1,500,000 pageviews. They also publish the Best Asia Real Estate Blog, Facebook, and Twitter posts. He offers free real estate seminars throughout Asia every quarter. For Free Seminar schedule email to seminarsptbali@gmail.com
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